Will a Recession Affect the Maui Real Estate Market?

How Will the Next Recession Affect the Housing Market… 

Given the current media buzz of an impending recession, many Americans are fearing the worst and believe a downturn in the real estate market is inevitable. Take a look at the graph below from Keeping Current Matters.

It’s important to note that of the last five recessions in U.S. history, three of them saw increases. Two of those three saw prices appreciate faster than the historical average, and the massive down turn was as a result of loose ethics and loan practices.

Graph showing the housing market in the last 5 recessions

Recession does not equal a housing crisis

 

What Exactly is a Recession

According to Websters Dictionary, a recession means a time where the economy dips for a period of 6 months. Considering that we’re in the longest running economic recovery, it’s no surprise that we’re in for a breather. The Maui marketplace is still robust and active with consistent visitors looking to scoop up great properties and the inventory is low – so it’s still busy and still fast paced for those looking to buy.

How Will Maui Be Affected?… 

Saying anything is recession-proof is a tough statement to make, but any time you have scarcity in a market, whatever the market is, it sets up your investment for success. Purchasing in a location with limited supply is key to making sure your vacation home investment doesn’t depreciate dramatically in a recession. The rental income opportunity can also provide some insulation from market downturns, and there are other factors, too, that help make certain types of vacation homes less risky investments. Check out the most recent short term rentals in Wailea here.

For the best locations in Hawaii, like the Maui beachfront, the dip in property values at the last turn was only 10% to 12%, the reason being the barrier to entry—the ability to get anything built—is unbelievably tough. It isn’t overbuilt, and people recognized the value here. Selecting the location of your vacation home wisely may not protect you entirely from seeing a drop in value during a recession, but it could mean that the decrease you see is much smaller than it would be elsewhere. Also consider whether a second home will be a long-term investment, and perhaps even someday become your primary residence or legacy. Our listings at Mahana Estates are legacy homes where families are seeing their dreams built before their eyes.  I encourage you to reach out and ask questions on how we can paint this picture for you.

Places like Hawaii, Cancun and Mallorca don’t go through seasonal ups and downs. There are low and high seasons, but people are always visiting. People buy a second home and eventually envision living there, so in that sense it’s recession proof. Even in a recession, there are people that still have money, and they’re looking for very specific types of houses, and are very location-driven. As we approach winter, we expect more inventory to come one as usual and we look forward to seeing our friends who return year after year.  If you’re curious about a Maui investment, reach out, let’s get your toes in the sand. Aloha! 

Posted on October 4, 2019 at 8:36 pm
Erica Haleakala | Category: Maui, Maui Development, Maui Economics, Maui Real Estate Reports, Moving to Maui, Short Term Rentals | Tagged , , , , , , ,

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